Hal R. Arkes

Professor Emeritus, Ohio State University

Website Hal R. Arkes


Hal R. Arkes is a professor emeritus of psychology at Ohio State University.  He received his B.A. from Carleton College in 1967 and his Ph.D. in psychology from the University of Michigan in 1971.  From 1993 to 1995 and again from 1998 to 2000, he was programme director at the National Science Foundation in Washington.  In 1996-1997 he was President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making. His research interests are in the area of judgement and decision making, particularly in the areas of medical and economic decision making.  He has published over 100 papers in these areas.

Dr Arkes has won several teaching awards and some of his research papers have also won awards. He has served on the editorial board of all major journals in his field. He has worked in the Department of Economics and at the Moritz School of Law at OSU as a team lecturer.  His most prolific contribution is serving tens of thousands of meals as a cook in the US Army.

Research Interests

  • Judgement/Decison Making
  • Medical Decision Making
  • Economic Decision Making

Selected Publications

Arkes, H. R., & Koehler, J. J. (2023). Inconclusive conclusions in forensic science: rejoinders to Scurich, Morrison, Sinha and Gutierrez. Law, Probability and Risk, mgad002. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgad002

Arkes, H. R. (2022). Practical consequences of flawed social psychological research on bias. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 45. DOI: 10.1017/S0140525X21000649

Arkes, H. R., Aberegg, S. K., & Arpin, K. A. (2022). Analysis of Physicians’ Probability Estimates of a Medical Outcome Based on a Sequence of Events. JAMA Network Open, 5(6), e2218804-e2218804. DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.18804

Arkes, H. R., & Koehler, J. J. (2021). Inconclusives and error rates in forensic science: a signal detection theory approach. Law, probability and risk, 20(3), 153-168. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgac005

Arkes, H. R., Naguib, M., Brull, S. J., Hunter, J. M., Kopman, A. F., Fülesdi, B., Johnson, K. B. (2019). Anesthesiologists’ overconfidence in their perceived knowledge of neuromuscular monitoring and its relevance to all aspects of medical practice: an international survey. Anesthesia & Analgesia, 128(6), 1118-1126. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgac005